:Product: 0315RSGA.txt :Issued: 2013 Mar 15 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 74 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2013 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 15/0658Z from Region 1692 (N09W03). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Mar, 17 Mar, 18 Mar). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 517 km/s at 15/0500Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 15/0719Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 15/0619Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (16 Mar), unsettled to major storm levels on day two (17 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (18 Mar). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (16 Mar, 17 Mar). III. Event probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar Class M 20/20/20 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 15/15/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 15 Mar 123 Predicted 16 Mar-18 Mar 120/120/115 90 Day Mean 15 Mar 116 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Mar 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar 008/015-028/037-014/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/30 Minor Storm 20/35/10 Major-severe storm 05/20/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/05/15 Minor Storm 15/20/30 Major-severe storm 10/70/40 :Product: 0316RSGA.txt :Issued: 2013 Mar 16 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 75 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2013 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 16/0539Z from Region 1698 (S19W57). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 Mar, 18 Mar, 19 Mar). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 551 km/s at 16/0506Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 16/0257Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 16/0309Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 12 pfu at 16/2015Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (17 Mar), quiet to active levels on day two (18 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (19 Mar). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (17 Mar), are likely to cross threshold on day two (18 Mar) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (19 Mar). III. Event probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar Class M 20/20/20 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 75/60/25 PCAF yellow IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 16 Mar 126 Predicted 17 Mar-19 Mar 125/120/115 90 Day Mean 16 Mar 116 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 15 Mar 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Mar 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar 028/039-014/020-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/05 Minor Storm 35/10/01 Major-severe storm 20/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 05/15/15 Minor Storm 20/30/10 Major-severe storm 70/40/05 :Product: 0317RSGA.txt :Issued: 2013 Mar 17 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 76 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2013 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 17/1253Z from Region 1698 (S19W72). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (18 Mar, 19 Mar) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (20 Mar). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 767 km/s at 17/1007Z. Total IMF reached 22 nT at 17/0744Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -20 nT at 17/0752Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 16 pfu at 17/0700Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 149 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (18 Mar), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (19 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (20 Mar). III. Event probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar Class M 20/20/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 17 Mar 126 Predicted 18 Mar-20 Mar 120/115/110 90 Day Mean 17 Mar 116 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar 008/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Mar 029/046 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar 018/025-008/008-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/15/05 Minor Storm 20/05/01 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 30/20/10 Major-severe storm 50/20/05